Consequence Modelling and Frequency Analysis

Understanding the potential consequences and likelihood of a hazardous event is a critical element in the decision making process for many organisations. Arriscar employs the latest consequence modelling techniques in determining the extent of hazardous outcomes of a fire, explosion, toxic or flammable gas dispersion, while using fundamental tools such as Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis in establishing the likelihood of the event occurring.

Consequence Modelling

It is important to understand the potential impacts of a hazardous event so as to be able to make informed decisions about how to address them. Consequence modelling tools, such as PHAST 7.1, provide a comprehensive platform to undertake the assessment of releases of hazardous substances and effects should flammable materials become ignited. Arriscar’s consultants use ‘first principles’ as the foundation to being able to deliver representative and meaning full consequence modelling results.

Arriscar uses the industry accepted PHAST 7.1 consequence modelling package to undertake modelling of the following hazardous scenarios:

• Jet Fires
• Pool Fires
• Flash Fires
• Fire Balls
• Vapour Cloud Explosions (VCE), and
• Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosions (BLEVE)
• Toxic Gas Dispersion

Further to the PHAST 7.1 consequence modelling package Arriscar also has the capacity to undertake specialised Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling for gas dispersion, thermal plume and explosion modelling and build specific models to suite various applications such as dust explosions or explosions in pipes.

Arriscar also uses IMESAFR for explosive facilities. IMESAFR is probabilistic risk assessment software that calculates risk to persons from explosives facilities.

Frequency Analysis